Article 50 to be Triggered at The End of This Month, ‘Sterling’ Falls to 8-week Low
UK Parliament overturned amendments made by the House of Lords; representatives from the Upper House conceded the change in the bill claiming any further disruption to the bill would just be playing politics. This once again reminded investors of the impending Brexit and now sooner than many expected, this immediate fear caused the Pound to fall overnight to an over 2-month low.
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Average Earnings Index, Claimant Count Change and unemployment Rate figures are all released later today from the UK, expected to be 2.4%, 3.2K and 4.8% respectively. If these figures come out positive this could give investors renewed confidence in the Pound.
The GBP is currently trading at 1.6071 against the AUD
AUD Hawkish Tone Softens, ‘Aussie’ Holds Onto Recent Gains
Disappointing NAB Business Confidence helped slow the AUD rally yesterday, little data out of Australia today thus all eyes will be to the USD Consumer Price Index and Core CPI figures, this is a leading indicator whether the Federal Reserve will be raising their cash rate tomorrow.
Traditionally when the US raises rates the AUD softens, analysts believe however the market may have already factored in many of the gains this will cause and so there may not be too strong of a movement on the 16th. Unemployment figures to be released on the same day; an unchanged unemployment rate while a 3K rise in employment change is expected, this has the potential to boost the ‘Aussie.
UK Cash Rate to Remain Unchanged
If the plethora of Australian, US and European data wasn’t enough on the 16th there will also be a cash rate decision by the Bank of England. The Monetary Policy Committee votes on whether to raise, lower or keep the cash rate unchanged; previously all nine members voted to keep the cash rate unchanged and with Article 50 to be triggered later this month it seems very unlikely there would be any change in the UK cash rate.
Asset Purchase Facility figures should provide further insight into the UK economy which will be released around the same time as the cash rate decision, also expected to remain relatively stable.