AUD NZD Exchange Rate Update: Australian Dollar Advances on Temporary Iron Ore Upgrade
The Australian Dollar made an overall rise against the New Zealand Dollar last week. Despite mid-week fluctuations, the pairing still advanced from an opening rate of 1.0632 on Monday to a closing 1.0664 on Friday.
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Upgraded Iron Ore Forecasts Trigger AUD Uptick
On an otherwise quiet close to the week, an Australian Dollar appreciation was caused by a Goldman Sachs forecast on iron ore.
The company issued an immediate positive prediction, with experts stating that;
‘The strength in iron ore prices is likely to continue in the short term as strong Chinese steel and iron ore demand from infrastructure and property new starts is complemented by solid growth in global activity excluding China’.
However, there were signs of turbulence ahead as Goldman Sachs analysts projected;
‘While we hold a relatively bullish view on iron ore for the second half of 2017, we take a bearish view during 2018. We expect plentiful iron ore production to come into the market in 2018. In most cases, this is low-cost, which would put downside pressure on our price forecast’.
New Zealand Dollar Slips on Cattle Disease Scare
Although the situation is apparently under control, news of a bacterial outbreak among cattle has still rattled NZD traders recently.
Earlier in the week, it was reported that mycoplasma bovis had been discovered at a single farm; this sparked fears that the national dairy production process could be disrupted.
The latest update has been from Primary Industries Region Controller Dr Chris Rodwell;
‘At this time we are still determining the scale of this situation through on-farm sampling and testing, and tracing of movements of stock on and off the properties’.
Giving a positive analysis of the situation was Business New Zealand Senior Economist Doug Steel;
‘[Dairy price drops don’t] seem to have happened with the passing of time already, so at this point we are thinking it is going to be a relatively small issue’.
AUD NZD Forecast: Australian Dollar Turbulence Likely on RBA Rate Decision
Australian Dollar traders will be hotly anticipating the coming week’s Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) interest rate decision, due on August 1st.
No rate change from 1.5% is forecast, but policymakers could still trigger a surprise rally if they discuss future monetary policy.
Following RBA Governor Philip Lowe’s recent comments that downplayed a near-term interest rate hike, any evidence that a hike could still come in 2017 may rekindle trader hopes.
If the RBA meeting on August 1st fails to bear fruit, clarity could come from the RBA statement on monetary policy, out on August 4th.
The week’s other notable AU news will be Thursday’s trade balance figure for June. A surplus reduction is forecast, which may reduce AUD trading before the RBA statement.
For the New Zealand Dollar, the main event next week will be the Global Dairy Trade price index, out on August 1st.
Dairy prices previously rose by 0.2%, so a greater increase may boost NZD trading for a short time.
Additionally, if NZ unemployment drops on August 1st then further NZD AUD gains could take place.
Recent Interbank AUD NZD Exchange Rates
At the time of writing, the Australian Dollar to New Zealand Dollar (AUD NZD) exchange rate was trading at 1.0661 and the New Zealand Dollar to Australian Dollar (NZD AUD) exchange rate was trading at 0.9375.