Euro to US Dollar Exchange Rate Forecast: EUR/USD Falls after Bleak Statement on Greek Future
The Euro to US Dollar (EUR/USD) exchange rate has dropped today, after the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) smashed hopes for Greek debt relief with a bleak analysis.
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Euro (EUR) Falls Overall after Future Greek Bailout Schemes are called into Question
The Euro (EUR) fell by -0.2% against the US Dollar (EUR/USD) today, and the common currency has seen further losses of -0.3% against the Pound Sterling (EUR/GBP) and -0.4% against the Polish Zloty (EUR/PLN). The losses come after the estimation by the NIESR that almost €100bn (£70bn) will need to be written off to pull Greece out of a ‘prolonged and severe depression’, according to the analysis.
Possibly the most damaging part of the analysis was the opinion of Research Fellow Jack Meaning, who believed that there was a ‘large chance’ of Greece unavoidably losing the Euro as its currency. While this occurrence would likely remove a dragging weight on the Euro’s performance, it would damage the currency’s value in the long term, as countless questions would be raised over whether other Eurozone countries could (or should) use the Euro.
The Euro to US Dollar (EUR/USD) exchange rate has risen by 0.2% today, after disappointing US PMI data cast doubts on the possibility of a US interest rate hike this year.
US Dollar to Euro (USD/EUR) Exchange Rate stands to Rise or Slide after Friday’s NFP Data
The Euro (EUR) has gained over the US Dollar (USD) today, less as a result of gains for the Euro, but more due to the uncertainty that surrounds the ‘Greenback’. The US June Construction Spending and July ISM Manufacturing PMI figures both showed worse than forecast results; a large dip from 1.8% down to 0.1% for the former, and a drop from 53.5 down to 52.7 for the latter.
These results have put the likelihood of the Federal Reserve (FR) introducing an interest rate hike later this year into question, as the FR has stated that any rate hike would be data dependant, and would require consistent signs of US economic growth. Friday is a crucial day for the ‘Greenback’, as the Change in Non-Farm Payrolls figure for July is a key indicator of the US economy’s performance; forecasts are mixed for the results of the data.
The Euro to US Dollar (EUR/USD) exchange rate is trending in a narrow range today after calamitous events in Greece dampened the Euro’s overall performance.
Euro to US Dollar Exchange Rate News: EUR/USD Levels out After Athens Stock Market Reopens
The Euro (EUR) has been trending in a narrow range against the US Dollar (EUR/USD) and the Pound Sterling (EUR/GBP) today after the minor Eurozone growth recorded in the July Manufacturing PMI figure was offset by Greece’s contribution (Greek manufacturing activity hit its lowest recorded rate since data collection began in 1999). The reopened Athens Stock Exchange (Athex) also diminished the gains of the Euro as in the hours following the reopening Greek banks nosedived on the market, some by as much as -30%.
The Euro has gained by over 0.4% against the Australian Dollar (EUR/AUD) and the Polish Zloty (EUR/PLN) today, and seen greater gains of more than 0.6% against the Canadian Dollar (EUR/CAD) and the South African Rand (EUR/ZAR). As these are all fairly unstable currencies, the results against the Pound Sterling (GBP) and the ‘Greenback’ (USD) are more indicative of the true performance of the common currency today.
US Dollar to Euro (USD/EUR) Exchange Rate Trends in Narrow Range ahead of Key US Data Releases
The US Dollar to Euro (USD/EUR) exchange rate has dipped today, showing very marginal gains for the ‘Greenback’. However, the US Dollar has made significant gains elsewhere, seeing an increase of over 0.6% against the Canadian Dollar (USD/CAD), the Polish Zloty (USD/PLN) and the South African Rand (USD/ZAR).
These gains come ahead of the release of some key economic figures for the US, the first of many in a crucial week for the US Dollar. The most important today are the monthly and yearly June US Personal Consumption Expenditure rates, and the ISM Manufacturing figure for July. Forecasts predict a 1.2% growth figure and retention of a 53.5 score respectively.
Euro to US Dollar Exchange Rate Forecast: Signs of US Economic Growth may Push ‘Greenback’ Higher in USD/EUR Pairing
The Euro (EUR) and the US Dollar (USD) will both be affected by economic data releases this week, but the ‘Greenback’ seems set to edge ahead.
The Eurozone monthly and yearly Retail Sales results for June are due on Wednesday, and have been forecast for a minor monthly decline and a slight slowing of yearly growth. However, German Factory Orders and Industrial Production results for June (due on Thursday and Friday) have been predicted to show monthly and yearly increases, and as Germany is the strongest Eurozone member, this may counteract any negative effects from other Eurozone results.
After today, the US Dollar is most likely to be affected by the US ISM Non-Manufacturing Composite for July (forecast for minor growth on Wednesday), and the July Unemployment Rate and Change in Non-farm Payrolls (released on Friday), the latter of which has been forecast to show an increase of 225,000 positions.
Current Euro, USD Exchange Rates
The Euro to US Dollar (EUR/USD) exchange rate was trending in the region of 1.0958 and the US Dollar to Euro (USD/EUR) exchange rate was trending in the region of 0.9128 today.