GBP/AUD and GBP/NZD Exchange Rate Forecast – Chinese Data Influencing Movement
Both the Pound Sterling to Australian Dollar (GBP/AUD) and Pound Sterling to New Zealand Dollar (GBP/NZD) exchange rates were trending in a stronger position on Monday as last week’s referendum continued to support the British currency.
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The Pound Sterling to Australian Dollar exchange rate achieved a high of 1.8446
The GBP/AUD pairing rallied by over 1% on Monday as investors ditched the Australian currency amid plummeting commodity prices and Chinese growth concerns.
Yesterday China’s Finance Minister asserted that the government wouldn’t be implementing any additional stimulus measures to support Chinese economic growth. It had been hoped that the nation would roll out a range of fresh support to help bolster the world’s second largest economy and the biggest importer of Australian commodities.
Expectations that the US Federal Reserve will hike interest rates at the beginning of next year also kept the ‘Aussie’ depressed.
In the view of forex strategist Peter Kinsella; ‘The ‘Aussie’ Dollar is caught between a rock and a hard place. The normalisation of US monetary policy is exerting downward pressure upon commodity prices. And then there is the impact from slowing Chinese growth. All told, it’s going to be a difficult fourth quarter for the currency.’
The Australian Dollar fell against the Pound and Euro as well as dropping to a seven-month low against the US Dollar.
The Pound to Australian Dollar (GBP/AUD) exchange rate is currently trading in the region of 1.8430 and the USD/AUD exchange rate is currently trading in the region of 1.1284
The New Zealand Dollar might have been trending in a weaker position against both the Pound and US Dollar on Monday, but the South Pacific currency did derive some support from the news that the National Party won the day in New Zealand’s election.
It is believed that the National Party will continue with current economic policies, and in the opinion of foreign exchange trader Martin Rudings this result will ‘go a long way to boost confidence in the business sector, and even consumer confidence, so it’s all a positive, no surprises really it is a real positive for the financial sector.’
The New Zealand Dollar managed to advance to 91.22 cents against the Australian Dollar and edged to 63.51 against the Euro.
However, the ‘Kiwi’ couldn’t overcome the Pound as the impact of Scotland saying ‘No’ to independence last Friday continued to be felt.
The Pound to New Zealand Dollar (GBP/NZD) exchange rate is currently trading in the region of 2.0120 and the NZD/USD exchange rate is currently trading in the region of 0.8114.
GBP/AUD, GBP/NZD Exchange Rate Forecast
The Pound to Australian Dollar exchange rate is likely to continue its upward trend overnight if China’s HSBC Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index disappoints expectations. The measure of manufacturing is expected to have declined from 50.2 to 50.0 in September, taking it right to the line separating growth from contraction.
The ANZ Roy Morgan Weekly Consumer Confidence Index could also have an impact if it registers another decline.
The direction taken by the GBP/NZD exchange rate will also be dictated by the Chinese data, although investors will also be looking ahead to this week’s economic reports for New Zealand – including the nation’s trade balance figures.
The Pound to Australian Dollar exchange rate fell by more than 0.3% during the Australasian session as investors responded to a slightly higher-than-forecast manufacturing PMI print for China.
The data also caused the Pound to New Zealand Dollar exchange rate dip by a similar amount.
In recent weeks concerns of a slowdown in China have weighed on the currencies of its key trading partners, New Zealand and Australia, so this above estimate result was well received. Commodities also enjoyed something of a rebound.
Sterling, meanwhile, came under a little pressure as investors locked in profits following the currency’s referendum-inspired surge.